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. . . . ..This is Abraham Finny Dayasingh(06AF102). Friends call me Binnybhai. Aim in life is to become a politician. Love travelling , photography, cycling. Thank you for visiting my blog. Please leave a comment if you enjoyed.
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* Why Modi cannot become the next PM.

This is my prediction from what I hear and read from different Sources. I love my country and have no inclination toward as any political party. I like BJP in Gujarat, JD(U) in Bihar, AIADMK in TN, congress in Rajasthan and I hate BJP in Karnataka, Congress in Delhi, SP in UP and so on. Support to a party should be based on their work and ability to maintain peace and rapid development in the country.

But with the recent hype of BJP coming back to power and Modi being projected as messiah doesn't make any sense to me. The work/claims in Gujarat are appreciable but let’s do math and spoil your hope.

Let’s discuss number, will keep it very simple.
Total seat: 543
Seat needed to come to power: 272
Current situation BJP: 137
Congress: 228



Apart from the regular vote, BJP will have to try and win 150 more seats. Now in Tamilnadu, Kerala, AP BJP will never get a vote nor allied. In Karnataka, due to corruption and issues with Yeddyurappa. 30+ seats in Bihar is lost due to personal issues with Nitish. AIADMK will extend only friendship not a single seat. Mamata Banerjee will never ally itself with BJP, so does Mulayam Singh from UP fearing Muslims vote. From where will Modi bring 150+ seats? I don't see any possibilities on how modi is going to collect that extra 150.

The loss of Congress due to various allegations of corruption is not going to benefit BJP in any way. Other smaller parties like YSR of Jagan, AAP of kerijwal will benefit. There are other issues too like Godhra riots, issues with Advani, and issues with the game changer Nitish kumar.

 Now, even if BJP win 200 seat single handedly (which is not possible), still the chances are dime, very few party(Shiv sena, SAD(Punjab), JMM) will support BJP. All the allied of BJP can gain only 20 odd seat together. If modi comes to power, it will be a miracle.

Who will come to power? My prediction in this election is that BJP with allied will get 150, congress will get another 150. The rest 250 seat will be with the CPI, JDU, AIADMK and other smaller parties, so someone from third front (Nitish or Praveen) might become our next PM.

Even Congress can’t be ruled out; they have very good grass hood level workers to bring enough seat to the party. Earlier there was a saying congress loss is BJP gain and BJP gain is congress loss. Both the party is equally corrupt and has equal intellect. Both are equally non-secular. But this time Congress loss will not be BJP’s gain. Modi can change nothing with his speech until he make peace with his past (Nitish, Godhra, other smaller party).

If modi has to win then along with Congress Nitish has to loss, Naveen Patnaik has to loss, AIADMK/DMK has to loss, YSR has to loss, SP/BSP has to loss. Only then their loss will be converted to BJP's profit. Which is not going to happen.

3 comments:

A Jeyaraj

Yes, I agree with Mr.Benny singh. BJP is also equally corrupt.Former Chief Minister of UP, Mr.Kalyan Singh, Former BJP President and a few other ministers and MPS of BJP Governments were caught red-handed. Their Friends RSS, HMS and other out-fits are extreme religious fanatics, which cannot be accepted by any educated and cultured Citizen of our great Nation.
But I feel Rahul Gandhi has missed the Bus early. He could have supported the Individuals and the host of People who raised their voices against corruption and Rape in Delhi. We have not heard much about him during those agitation. The present stand he took against the emergency bill against the disqualification of MPs is a good sign. He need to do a lot of homework to raise up to the center stage of our Nation.
Above all the Sovereign Lord is on the Throne. He knows whom to elevate and wom to floor. Great is the Lord! He makes the RULER of our great Nation!

Annie

I see quite a few people have shared this on fb... very well written Binny !!

Jerry Livingston

Well written Binny.... Modi has always projected himself and can never lead a coalition government. Looks like we may have a hung parliament this time.